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You know, the number of times I miss has to be at least two standard deviations out. How many 75-85% shots can I miss? It's way more than 20-25% of them, I assure you. More like the reverse, I make about 20-25% of those.

I guess I should run the debugger all the time, to see how much it's actually lying to me.

Maybe I should graph the shots or something.

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There do seem to be some issues with the UI displaying incorrect hit %, but I think it's with certain things and not a general issue.

For example, having spent some time testing it looks like the smoke penalty to hit doesn't work (or doesn't work properly, anyway). I'm fairly sure as well that hypervelocity weapons are showing the hit % without cover, when in fact they are still affected by it (which might be why your high % shots are missing more often than they should, if you're using sniper weapons), but I've not tested this.

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I'm not even counting the sniper weapons. For example, I just had three guys auto-fire at 5 squares away. All misses. Seb then walks forward one square and hits my guy (crouching) twice, killing him.

::headdesk::

We used to say, "That's X-COM, baby!" for moments like these.

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Maybe it has something to do with autofire, as I too really hate to use it unless I'm literally point blank. Not only do autofire shots miss significantly more often than snap shots, they fly out in wild directions up to ~90 degrees apart and have hit friendly soldiers standing *right next to the shooter*.

I haven't had the same problem with single shot fire modes. The accuracy seems to be pretty straightforward, with exception of intervening cover/obstacles/smoke.

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With the damage randomness added in, in my experience, it skews downward. I have to hit a Seb probably 4-6 times to bring it down with ballistic weapons. Fewer if there's a sniper rifle in the mix (which always does 40 damage, which is probably a hypervelocity bug).

With the number of times this guy was hit before (twice, each about 20 damage), I knew I needed at least two more hits to kill him. I was hoping that at 19%, I would hit two shots out of nine. I hit zero shots out of nine.

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The only time the %'s have been off for me is if the line of fire intersects cover. Mentally I've just taken the 95% and minused out the % the cover is reading. This has proven to be fairly accurate for me to gauge whether a shot will hit.

I noticed from the last build the veteran soldiers I had (never lost any of my initial soldiers in 19.6, so they were superhuman) grew more accurate w/ autofire as their accuracy stat increased. This wasn't reflected in the hit%.

My riflemen would often hit w/ 2 out of 3 shots on full auto. My rookies that were added when I went to Shrikes...not so much. Their full auto shots were all over.

Points:

1. Cover isn't being deducted properly on some single shots.

2. Full auto fire isn't updating its hit % as soldiers advance in accuracy.

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I'm not even counting the sniper weapons. For example, I just had three guys auto-fire at 5 squares away. All misses. Seb then walks forward one square and hits my guy (crouching) twice, killing him.

That sounds like bad luck. Actually, with a 19% chance to hit, you have a fairly high (~15%) chance of all 9 shots missing. Which is low, but not at all improbable. (If that's any consolation?)

In all honesty, I can't say that I've had the same experience as you in my games. Indeed, one of the things I've come to enjoy about Xenonauts actually is how I've never really felt screwed over by the RNG. I've had plenty of bad rolls (usually aliens hitting me with unlikely shots), but I've had plenty of good rolls too (aliens missing star soldiers at close range with plasma rifle burst fire!). If anything, I feel like it's been slightly in my favour (ironically, in the testing I did, all the hit % were either average or better, even the control ones). But, maybe the game just likes me!

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There have been historic issues with the accuracy % on the cursor not actually reflecting the hit %, or at least that the subsequent behaviour of "hits" or "misses" meant that the % was inaccurate.

The debug program I've previously linked allows this to be tested to some degree, but it is certainly possible there's some misbehaviour there.

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Maybe it has something to do with autofire, as I too really hate to use it unless I'm literally point blank. Not only do autofire shots miss significantly more often than snap shots, they fly out in wild directions up to ~90 degrees apart and have hit friendly soldiers standing *right next to the shooter*.

I haven't had the same problem with single shot fire modes. The accuracy seems to be pretty straightforward, with exception of intervening cover/obstacles/smoke.

If you have 3 guys next to each other in a line, it works if you have everyone crouched, and then stand and fire, then sit back down, go to the next guy, stand and fire, then sit back down.

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On a side note, I've long since mostly ignored the %s, for one they are off, quite a bit in some situations, and second, they are just percentages anyways.

The idea is to not be in situations where you have to make a shot or you risk dieing, and if you arent in that situation, just ignore the % and take the shot.

Of course if you are trying to decide on ending turn with TUs to take a reaction shot...just dont.

Unless you have 4-6 guys with enough TUs to take a reaction shot in correct formation (Wont shoot each other) and distance, then dont even bother trying to rely on them.

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