[e22.5 hf - Geoscape] 1 Foxtrot vs 1 Corvette -> Autoresolve %100 win

It seems the autoresolve does not take into account yet the real damage potential of each aircraft, as I reported for a previous build.

I guess this behaviour depends on the fact that the autoresolve formula uses the percentage of remaining ammo; I would suggest instead a check of this kind:

damage potential vs. remaining health of opponent

to be performed before any other calculation.

Honestly, I don't think you can 'fix' this problem without adding in a non-binary outcome. I'm fairly certain that the autoresolver either gives you a victory (which causes a variable amount of damage to aircraft unless your strength is sufficiently high) or you lose (resulting in all craft being downed).

The autoresolver can't simulate what would actually happen in this instance whereby the Corvette would be damaged but not destroyed, while the Foxtrot would escape unscathed. It can't simply be changed to check for maximum weapon damage, because not having enough firepower to win doesn't (in normal air combat) result in automatically losing either. I guess, ideally, you would have an attack and defence strength for each aircraft (say attack based on weapons and defence based on aircraft type), with attack scores checked against defence scores to see how much damage is done to either side (which would allow for draws). But it might be a bit late to do something like that now.

(I guess, rather than winning automatically shooting down an alien craft, it could simply apply the aircraft's maximum damage output to it instead. That might be a lower-tech solution and would produce the desired result.)

I don't recall this was so in past builds, condor never won auto against corvette. You basically got a win chance based on Total Damage Potential divided by enemy HP. For example level 2 Condor got %100 against scout but now it gets %85, whereas it can actually yield enough damage to kill it. Seeing the above in the last build made me think the system broke somehow. I may be mistaken.

They added into the autoresolver variables for things like remaining fuel and ammo, which is probably what's changed the numbers.

Well then if this is no bug, I would have to agree with your above post #3 that its probably best to have a system where every ship gets a "Power" variable and autoresolve becomes a true roll of RNG with ratios divided. Its often best to keep things simple and just handwave some seemingly unrealistic outcomes like the foxtrot not spending missile in auto for example, or entering auto with low fuel and winning.

Actually, there might be a 'bug' in the sense that it seems that the recent changes have revised the auto-resolve calculations upwards in favour of the player. I would have expected the old (pre 22.5) values to have reflected the 'ideal' state of full ammo and sufficient fuel; indeed the changes seem like they were supposed to represent the negative effect of adverse circumstances.

Might be more of a balance issue, though, rather than a bug per se.

Currently both Corvette weapons have 0 autoresolve strength (ARS).

If the strength of these weapons is supposed to influence the outcome then maybe because the Corvette would have a 0% chance to win the human interceptor must have 100% chance to win?

Currently human heavy missiles have their damage as their ARS against targets that cannot roll and 0 ARS against targets that can.

I don't know how it calculates this if multiple enemy craft are present when some can roll and others cannot though.

Human light missile have their damage as ARS but a 50% reduction against targets that can roll.

Human cannon have the same ARS as a same tier light missile with no reduction against craft that can roll.

Alien misiles have their damage as ARS despite them also having two shots each, this should possibly be reflected in the ARS.

Alien cannon and beam weapons have no ARS at all and no equal tier missiles to use as a base.

Currently both Corvette weapons have 0 autoresolve strength (ARS).

It's the same with all UFOs though: all their autoresolve strength is in their type, save for fighters which get a small buff for their missiles against Foxtrots. I think, then, that the ARS is just additive (i.e. you add the strength of the plane/UFO to the strength of its weapons), otherwise none of the UFOs could ever win.

Looking at the numbers, a Corvette has a strength of 1700, while (assuming everything is additive) a Condor with Alenium missiles has a strength of 700 and a Foxtrot with Alenium torpedoes has 900. I'd be surprised if those values should be giving 100% victory chance.

I think your numbers are wrong on the condor and mig but I can't be sure.

I work the condor out as 1000 assuming the basic cannon and 2x alenium missiles, or 800 if facing a fighter.

The mig works out at 1500 assuming 2x alenium torpedoes, only 300 against fighters.

Still not enough to assure victory 1v1 against anything but scout and light scouts if the formula is working correctly which sounds about right.

It apparently worked acceptably well in the older version so as the formula seems to be the only thing that has changed then that is likely where the fault lies.

I don't think I have ever paid much attention to the values it gives though, I don't use it very often.

I was just wondering if adding a multiplier for ammunition levels may have caused a problem with weapons that have 0 strength.

It seems the autoresolve does not take into account yet the real damage potential of each aircraft, as I reported for a previous build.

I guess this behaviour depends on the fact that the autoresolve formula uses the percentage of remaining ammo; I would suggest instead a check of this kind:

damage potential vs. remaining health of opponent

to be performed before any other calculation.

This is pretty much what the new modifiers do.

The ARS of the weapon is its damage in most cases so modifying that by the remaining ammunition percentage gives the remaining damage of that weapon.

The enemy ship ARS is the same as its maximum health so modifying that by the remaining health percentage allows the remaining damage of the weapon to be directly compared to the remaining health of the enemy.

The system would fall down a little if weapon values are added to health though as a ship with no ammunition but high health would be classed as more powerful than a craft with low health but massive firepower, even though the latter could not be damaged at all by the former.

Honestly, I don't think you can 'fix' this problem without adding in a non-binary outcome. I'm fairly certain that the autoresolver either gives you a victory (which causes a variable amount of damage to aircraft unless your strength is sufficiently high) or you lose (resulting in all craft being downed).

The autoresolver can't simulate what would actually happen in this instance whereby the Corvette would be damaged but not destroyed, while the Foxtrot would escape unscathed. It can't simply be changed to check for maximum weapon damage, because not having enough firepower to win doesn't (in normal air combat) result in automatically losing either. I guess, ideally, you would have an attack and defence strength for each aircraft (say attack based on weapons and defence based on aircraft type), with attack scores checked against defence scores to see how much damage is done to either side (which would allow for draws). But it might be a bit late to do something like that now.

(I guess, rather than winning automatically shooting down an alien craft, it could simply apply the aircraft's maximum damage output to it instead. That might be a lower-tech solution and would produce the desired result.)

The outcomes are definitely not binary; I had an interception with two Condors and a Foxtrot vs a Corvette and had one of the Condor's downed, the second Condor took heavy damage, and the Foxtrot took minor damage. So there's definitely the possibility of a pyrrhic victory where you win with some losses on your side, it just seems that the autoresolve formula is a bit off at present and doesn't always reflect what would happen if you actually fought the battle yourself.

The outcomes are definitely not binary; I had an interception with two Condors and a Foxtrot vs a Corvette and had one of the Condor's downed, the second Condor took heavy damage, and the Foxtrot took minor damage. So there's definitely the possibility of a pyrrhic victory where you win with some losses on your side, it just seems that the autoresolve formula is a bit off at present and doesn't always reflect what would happen if you actually fought the battle yourself.

Yes, sorry. What I meant was that there are only two basic outcomes: all the alien ships are downed, or all your planes are downed. Damage is applied to the winner, but there's never a situation where there is no winner. One side always loses all their aircraft; in that way it is binary.

Therefore, it's impossible at the moment to simulate what would happen in the example given in the OP: the Foxtrot would attack, loose its missiles, and escape unharmed. Moreover, if you checked to see if the player has enough firepower to win and returned 0% chance to win if they didn't, that would only have the consequence of always having all your planes downed.

(I'm happy to be wrong about this - it might be that the system is more sophisticated than I realise. But to my knowledge, the system at the moment basically can't simulate fleeing.)

it just seems that the autoresolve formula is a bit off at present and doesn't always reflect what would happen if you actually fought the battle yourself.

I don't really see how it COULD reflect that.

Say I am not very good at air combat and you are quite skilled at it.

Should the auto resolve reflect what would happen if I was playing or if you were?

Should it give an easy mode way to skip the air combat or should it be a time saver but with some increased risk involved that the player could avoid by playing manually?

Incidentally I wonder what happens at different difficulty levels.

UFO health is reduced at lower levels but I don't know if the autoresolve strength is adjusted accordingly.

I don't think it's a bug as such, but it's certainly an outcome that should not be occurring.

Best fed into the discussion in this thread: http://www.goldhawkinteractive.com/forums/showthread.php/9812-Air-Combat-Autoresolve-Formula-Tweaks-Values?p=108039#post108039